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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers rising collectively. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still