A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
