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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.